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ml-recall

#discrete-prior

1 question from Probabilistic & Graphical Models

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Question 1: Short answer

mediumAI-checkedProbabilistic & Graphical Models

yy counts the successes in 5 independent trials with success probability θ\theta. The prior is P(θ=12)=0.25P(\theta = \tfrac12) = 0.25, P(θ=16)=0.5P(\theta = \tfrac16) = 0.5 and P(θ=14)=0.25P(\theta = \tfrac14) = 0.25. You observe y=2y = 2. What is the posterior probability P(θ=12∣y=2)P(\theta = \tfrac12 \mid y = 2)? Round to 3 decimals.

a probability, 3 decimals